Monday, January 21, 2008

MacWorld Scorecard

I took a gamble last week and offered up my Apple predictions for MacWorld and 2008 at-large. Now that the show is over, lets score them and see if I have any latent ESP. The items highlighted in RED were at least mostly correct, PURPLE were partially correct, and BLUE were just plain wrong.

MacWorld

  1. Ultralight notebook: Well, I was close as they did announce the MacBook Air. I was off on the price at $1399 since it is really $1799, and I was partially correct about different units (consider CPU to be different). I was wrong about an ExpressCard slot though.
  2. iTunes Movie Rentals: dead on with this one, not that it was difficult.
  3. AppleTV Gen 2: mostly right, so far. The only feature I seemed to be wrong about was a new video input capability.
  4. MacBook next-gen: I was completely wrong on this one, at least for it being MacWorld. I still think there is a chance later in 2008.
  5. Monitors/Displays: again, I was dead wrong. But I do think this will happen in 2008.
  6. Mac Mini: another one I missed, but a possibility for later this year.
  7. Touch interface: Partially correct as he touch interface was expanded with the MacBook Air touchpad.
  8. iPhone II: my iPhone predictions didn't come true, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a special event in February around the launch date of the SDK.
  9. iPhone firmware update: of several features I listed, only two were correct; an expanded Springboard and some customization of the interface (webclips).
  10. iTunes Store & the Beatles: Wishful thinking and foiled again. I am still waiting for Merlin Mann's yellow iPod.
  11. iTunes Store and non-DRM: no news announced on this front. Perhaps later in 2008 since Amazon has just about everybody on-board.
  12. Several vendors have advanced iPhone SDKs and will announce apps: well, the new Google Maps says something.
  13. Apple in content creation: definitely not.

2008 at-large

  1. iTunes will become a commerce hub for games and applications for the Mac
  2. AppleTV: will get an update that will allow it to record video to iTunes, essentially becoming a PVR.
  3. The MacBook Pro line will get a refresh in late-Summer.
  4. Apple will release a new product similar to the almost-failed UMPC. It will have the touch interface mentioned in #5 above.
  5. iTunes will add true HD content: right-on with this one too!
  6. Apple will release products that have wireless video capability. They are big on dumping wires and the technology is there.
  7. A new iLife with advanced iMovie features and the ability to produce content directly into iTunes.
  8. Leopard brought us some improved speech tools. I think 2008 will be the year that we see more apps that use it, and use it well.

Well, it doesn't look like the great Kreskin, or Carnak for that matter, have anything to fear from me. If you score a point for correct and half point for partial, then I scored 4.5 out of 13. That's a failing grade by almost any standard. Even with the extra credit point for the 2008 at-large prediction coming at MacWorld, it's still pretty lousy. We'll see how the scorecard is at the end of the year.

But, there are some things I have to wonder about. Steve Jobs and Apple are notorious for wanting to make a splash, and he is a polished presenter. However, most of the announcements were expected and even leaked. Steve also made more errors than normal in his presentation and, for perhaps the first time, part of his technical presentation failed (Flickr browsing from Apple TV). This makes me wonder if there were last minute changes to the presentation that may have been driven by the leaks and Apple's desire for a splash? I am pretty certain we'll see an Apple event before the end of February, but is there a chance that we'll see two of them?

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